Are We Winning? In Our Summer Paradise, Summer Is Warmer & Longer

CAPE COD – George Sylvestre, a fishing guide from Brewster, said that not that long ago he used to “roll it up” in September “but we started to extend it into October and the last two years I had successful trips all the way through Halloween.”

“I’m not a climatologist,” he said, “but it seems like the season is lasting longer than it used to.”

Jessica Spaccio, who is a climatologist with the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, said, of a longer summer, “we’re starting to see that trend.”

And Mike Wankum, meteorologist with WCVB Channel 5 Boston, said, “You are seeing the summer lasting longer. We really are warming up faster than other places… New England is considered one of the fastest warming places on the planet.” 

On Cape Cod, that makes for some interesting dichotomies of what it all means. 

There are downsides, for sure. Paul Niedzwiecki, CEO of the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce, can quickly name “sea level rise is starting to impact all towns on coastal properties. Towns have to be prepared to be more resilient. Coastal resilience is a big thing, especially with frequent and more severe storm activity. There could be more hurricanes. We just haven’t been the target of one yet. You can see the ones hitting other places wreaking more havoc. There are changes in fish migration patterns and ocean acidification, and that could affect the shellfish stock.”

And yet, there is no denying, as Niedzwiecki said, “It is a big deal if we define it as a change that is having a fundamental positive impact on the economy of the Cape.”

Jen Villa, executive director of Love Live Local, a nonprofit that promotes local businesses, said, “September is turning into a really great month. It used to be go for ten weeks and then hold on tight until maybe the holiday season. But now September is totally in play. Extending the season for a small business is huge and really powerful.”

There are always winners and losers. And as the climate changes, one wonders if the summer paradise that is Cape Cod is ultimately getting even better.

 

So What is Going On With Cape Cod’s Climate?

“There are ebbs and flows all the time,” said Wankum. “Taking individual storms or individual seasons as meaningful is dangerous to do.”

“But if you look at the whole picture, we’re warming. As the planet warms, the ocean warms,” said Wankum.

And that has interesting effects. “As you warm the planet, you have basic air currents going all the time around the planet,” he said. 

“It seems counterintuitive that you could have colder winters, but as that warm air increases, the arctic top starts to wobble, and that cold air comes down on top of us,” he said.

“We used to call it global warming. Now we call it climate change because there are places on the planet that will end up being colder,” said Wankum. 

But in many places, he said, “It’s not the same as it’s always been.” New England is one of those places.

Summers have certainly gotten warmer in the past 30 years. The mean average temperature in August at the Chatham Airport has risen from 68.7 degrees in 1996 to 73.6 degrees in 2023, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC). That is a 4.9 degree increase in 27 years.

 

The mean average temperature in September at the Chatham Airport has increased from 63 degrees in 1996 to 66 degrees in 2023 – an increase of 3 degrees in 27 years, according to the NRCC.

Summers are getting warmer, and the warmth is lasting longer.

These are not torturous days of 100 degrees or more that many parts of the country face. These are pleasant temperatures with an August mean rising to the low 70s. And because it is Cape Cod surrounded by water, there is always a sea breeze. It really is a summer paradise.

And winter temperatures at the Chatham airport – with winter being defined as January, February and March – have increased from 33.7 degrees in 1996 to 35.6 in 2023. That is an increase of 1.9 degrees in 27 years, according to the NRCC.

Spaccio provided more data from Boston, going back to 1890. 

She said that data going back only 30 years can only tell so much, but looking further back gives a better idea of how things are trending.

The snowfall rate over that 100-year period showing high snowfall years and low years shows a jagged peaks-and-valleys line until the mid 1970s, when the peaks increased and the valleys also increased.

 

Of the snowfall amount, Spaccio said, “Noteworthy is the change in year-to-year variability since the early 1970s. There have been more extremes, both in low and high snowfall amounts,” she said.

Wankum noted that the last winter with a large amount of snowfall in New England was 2015. While it was a memorable winter, Wankum said, “The interesting thing about that winter is that it was only six weeks long. It started very late and then we had a six week period of storm after storm.”

And Wankum pointed to a graph of records set by decade from climatecentral.org, which shows that, in Boston, there have been more record highs per year than record lows.

 

One downside of the warming trend, Wankum said is that “for every 1 degree increase in heat, the atmosphere holds 4 percent more moisture. That leads to bigger rainstorms. The northeast has seen the greatest increase in very wet storms.”

Another change, said Wankum, is that “overnight temperatures have warmed since 1970. We don’t cool down at night and that makes it more uncomfortable.

While there are still those who deny the change is caused by humans, Wankum said he is starting to notice a change in the discussion of the issue. “People are saying, ‘Hey, wait. This isn’t normal. They are starting to see it in their own lives… it seems that less and less people think that climate change is garbage.” 

“Ebbs and flows have always taken place but it has really ramped up over the last century,” he said. And he pointed to what the scientific community has pointed to: carbon.

“When you look at very long term CO2 output, notice the spike over the last 100 years,” said Wankum.

 

This warming will lead to many things, said Wankum. “There are things we’re going to lose. Maybe we’ll have different marine life. Maybe some different algae blooms. And more mosquitos with more rain and more warmth,” he said. 

“But there will always be advantages to some things too,” said Wankum.

 

Second Summer, Changing Summer

For long time, the peak of summer was known as being “the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August,” said Niedzwiecki. “But now all of July and August are really busy, and June and September are busy too,” he said.

On Cape, many have called September and October “locals summer” because the weather is still good but most of the traffic is gone. 

But the secret is getting out.

At the Chatham Bars Inn, September is marketed as “secret summer,” said Courtney Lowe, vice president of marketing and business for the resort hotel. With school in sessions, Lowe said Chatham Bars Inn draws “less families and more couples. There are older couples whose children have grown and younger couples with toddlers and it doesn’t matter when they travel.”

“For almost ten years, the Chamber has been promoting the concept of a second summer,” said Niedzwiecki.

Lowe said fall has always been marketed at the Chatham Bars Inn. While the weather has “been maybe a little more favorable,” Lowe said there has been a slight increase in fall occupancy. The season has alway been popular, he said.

The warming “is something to pay attention to,” said Lowe. “I’ve heard it brought up all over New England. He had previously worked in Vermont and, he said, “the shifting of the fall foliage was a big subject up there.”

And Christine McCarthy, CEO of the Provincetown Art Association and Museum, said, “Our busiest season is actually September and October. More people are really finding out that fall is the best time to be here.”

In Falmouth, Tara Burke, the co-Executive Director of Highfield Hall, said that Highfield Hall’s “mission as a cultural center” tends to  skew towards older adults in the fall as many of the children and young families have gone home off Cape.

But there have been more events  in the fall, she said, such as jazz stroll and, for runners, “there are more races in the fall,” she said.

“With the warm weather, [the town] is certainly more active in the fall in recent years than it was ten years ago,” said Burke.

Elizabeth Wurfbain, Executive Director of the Hyannis Main Street Business Improvement District, said of the warmer fall weather, “People are really milking it. They are at the beach. They are enjoying it.”

And Wurfbain pointed what is obvious to many who live here: “Spring is terrible here. But our falls are great.”

‘There is beautiful color grass. There is warm water. The birds are still here,” she said. 

The fall is also a good time to have events such as the upcoming Restaurant Week in October,” said Wurfbain. “We try not to have them in the summer. We’re already busy,” she said.

The gradual change of Cape Cod from a six-week summer paradise into a season extending into the fall came has come about gradually as the weather warmed. As Niedzwiecki said, “People are getting used to the fact that the air doesn’t get cold the day after Labor Day, and we don’t get snow in November.”

As Burke said of Highfield Hall, which is open during the Holiday season and for certain events in the winter, “It gives people a place to go in the dead of winter because it’s not snowing and people want something to do.”

 

Planting And A Longer Season

Wankum said he is renovating an old house that had hickory trees and chestnut trees but said he learned “if you are planting trees right now, plant what they plant in North Carolina… Hickory and chestnut trees need cold weather to harden off, otherwise they just fade away.”

Richie Claudio, general manager at Mahoney’s Garden Center in East Falmouth, had a more general comment about the warming climate and planting. “Fall is a very good time to plant. People had been afraid it was going to get cold too soon, but now because of the extended summer, they should be less afraid,” he said.

Some southern plants, such as southern magnolias, are becoming more popular, said Claudio. 

“Winter is not as harsh so some southern grown plants that are more susceptible to the cold are surviving more now and they weren’t 15 or 20 years ago. We had a colder climate.”

“I grew up here. It’s not as cold as it used to be. We don’t have those real harsh winters and people are planting deeper into the season,” said Claudio.

“Fall is great for planting,” said Claudio. “They really should invest in their properties because it pays off.” But, Claudio said it’s a little slow because “people don’t buy when there’s a lot of commotion about politics.”

Sylvestre, who guides fishing trips mostly off the Brewster flats, said, “There is an economic impact. We have a longer season to make money.”

“I’m able to do trips later in the year before the water and air gets too cold,” said Sylvestre. “When the striper season ends, I head to Western Mass and and to guide trout fishing out there.”

As for fishing the Cape, Sylvestre said, “There’s a rule of thumb of fishermen that the season is not over until you get skunked three times in a row. We have a hard time convincing ourselves it is over until we are faced with the undeniable truth. We kind of call it the last goodbye. And if you’re walking the flats looking at a pretty sunset, if that’s the last goodbye, it’s still pretty good.”

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