The envelope is opened.
“And the winner is … ‘Sentimental Value’!”
The audience erupts in surprise and approval. I jump up from the couch and deliver a celebratory fist pump.
Yes!
Only … no.
“Sentimental Value,” is up for nine Oscars, including best picture, best actress (Renate Reinsve, right) and best supporting actor (Stellan Skarsgard, left). (Neon)
That’s probably not going to happen.
The Oscars are about celebrating great work in film. (OK, from the studios’ point of view they’ve always been about marketing, but let’s ignore that for a less cynical approach.) If you’re passionate about film, it’s thrilling when your favorite movie, performance or other achievement (in directing, cinematography, etc.) lands the top prize.
And it can be a letdown when it doesn’t.
When this year’s Oscars take place on March 15, I don’t expect my favorites to win. I expect to be disappointed. Can’t win ’em all.
Still, as long as the winners aren’t too obnoxious in their acceptance speeches (as sometimes they are), it’s nice – and sometimes moving – to see artists get recognized for their work, even when not your choice.
Here’s the lineup of nominees, listed in order of my preference (best to worst), in the top six categories, followed by a few comments and my prediction of who or what will win.
Best picture
1. “Sentimental Value”
2. “Train Dreams”
3. “Sinners”
4. “Frankenstein”
5. “The Secret Agent”
6. “One Battle After Another”
7. “Bugonia”
8. “Marty Supreme”
9. “F1”
10. “Hamnet”
Joachim Trier’s family drama “Sentimental Value,” easily the best film of the year, digs deep into characters’ emotions with devastating effect, thanks largely to the sublime performances of its top-tier cast. Clint Bentley’s “Train Dreams” offers a similar type of depth with its poetic view of an Everyman’s life in rural Idaho.
Neither appear to have much of a chance. This category appears to be a battle between Paul Thomas Anderson’s political satire “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s Deep South horror tale “Sinners,” with Chloe Zhao’s romantic tear-jerker “Hamnet” as the potential dark horse.
My pick: “Sentimental Value”
My prediction: “Sinners”
Best actor
1. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
2. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
3. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
4. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Hawke’s transformation into the diminutive, self-destructive lyricist Lorenz Hart is a towering achievement, and I’m surprised he isn’t a shoo-in. Instead, this appears to be a close call between Jordan, for his dual performance as 1930s gangster twins Smoke and Stack Moore, and Chalamet, as ping-pong rogue Marty.
My pick: Ethan Hawke
My prediction: Michael B. Jordan
Best actress
1. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
2. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
3. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
4. Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
5. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Another no-brainer in my view. Reinsve, the brilliant Norwegian star of “The Worst Person in the World,” delivers another breathtaking performance as an actress struggling with the emotional damage caused by her director father’s abandonment of her family.
Buckley, though, has won every award in sight leading up to the Academy Awards for her performance as William Shakespeare’s earthy wife. She appears a sure-bet for the trophy, and, given what a great actress she is (check her out in the new, insane “The Bride!”), expect to see her up for many more.
My pick: Renate Reinsve
My prediction: Jessie Buckley
Best supporting actor
1. Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value”
2. Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
3. Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
4. Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
5. Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Skarsgard’s subtle work as the neglectful father in “Sentimental Value” makes him the best pick, with Elordi’s performance as the sensitive “Frankenstein” monster a worthy runner-up. Skarsgard appeared the front-runner, but Penn – whose over-the-top Col. Steven J. Lockjaw comes off as a MAGA Popeye – has gained momentum with his recent Actors Award win. Here’s hoping Skarsgard prevails.
My pick: Stellan Skarsgard
My prediction: Stellan Skarsgard
Best supporting actress
1. Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
2. Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
4. Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
5. Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
While Penn’s and Taylor’s exaggerated performances in “One Battle After Another” put them at the bottom of my lists in the supporting categories, Madigan’s comically bizarre witch in “Weapons” tops this list. Why? Penn and Taylor appear so self-conscious in their roles – you can see the acting – while the unrecognizable Madigan disappears into her character. Plus Madigan is just so weirdly funny in the part.
“Sentimental Value” co-stars Fanning and Lilleaas would make worthy choices, too, for more realistic portrayals.
My pick: Amy Madigan
My prediction: Amy Madigan
Best director
1. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
4. Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
5. Chloe Zhao, “Hamnet”
This could be a year when best director and best film don’t match, with Anderson, who took the Directors Guild of America Award, winning best director for “One Battle” while “Sinners” wins best picture. Then again, maybe not. Trier, appears the least likely to win. Ugh.
My pick: Joachim Trier
My prediction: Ryan Coogler
A final prediction:
There’s a very good chance I’ll only go about 3-for-6 in these predictions. It’s a tricky year. Besides, who do you think I am, Nostradamus?
** Click here for Tim Miller’s previous movie columns for Cape Cod Wave **
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Tim Miller, Movie Critic
Tim Miller is co-president of the Boston Society of Film Critics and a Tomatometer-approved critic. He teaches film and journalism at Cape Cod Community College in West Barnstable. You can contact Tim at [email protected] or follow him onTwitter @TimMillerCritic. Or you can ignore him completely.
