I have a confession:
The older I get, the less I care about the Oscars.
I’ll still watch the show, which airs March 2. I’ll still root for my favorite nominees. I’ll still enjoy watching my favorite celebs and laughing at the better comic bits. I’ll still be moved occasionally by something someone says.
But while I used to hyperventilate with excitement during the show, the thrill is gone. There are lots of reasons, I suppose: the emphasis on fashion and celebrity worship and predictions over the quality of the movies, the self-congratulatory/self-righteous speeches, the blatant commercialism, the occasional poor choices for winners.
I might be even less engaged this year because of the nominees. Not one of the 10 best picture nominees were on my top-10 list for 2024. Only three of the 20 nominees in the acting categories were among my 10 favorite performances.
Best actress nominee Mikey Madison and Mark Eydelshteyn appear in a scene from Sean Baker’s “Anora,” which stands a good chance of winning the Oscar for best picture on March 2. (Neon)
I”m not suggesting that the Oscar voters should agree with me. It’s not like a recent presidential election, which … oh, never mind. And I still have my favorites in the top categories. I’m just not very excited about the choices this year.
That said, I’m going to try to do something a little different than I usually do for my Oscar preview column. I’ll write about the current nominees in the top six categories, as always, but this time I’ll also include who would have been my nominees, and those I’d pick as the winners.
So here we go:
Best Picture
Oscar nominees (ranked in order of my preference):
1. “I’m Still Here”
2. “Anora”
3. “A Complete Unknown”
4. “Wicked”
5. “Conclave”
6. “The Substance”
7. “Nickel Boys”
8. “The Brutalist”
9. “Dune: Part Two”
10. “Emilia Perez”
Ah, the shifting fortunes in the Oscar race. The trans-themed “Emilia Perez” appeared the favorite at one time, arguably for PC reasons, and now it doesn’t appear to stand a chance to win, also for PC reasons (certain emails written by its star, Karla Sofia Gascon).
I wouldn’t give it the award simply because all of the other nominees, with the possible exception of the unexceptional “Dune” sequel, are better.
“Emilia,” a Spanish-language French musical crime drama about a Mexican cartel kingpin who transitions into a woman, certainly deserves credit for breaking new ground – as do “Anora” and “Nickel Boys.” But that alone doesn’t give it the impact one would expect for a best-film winner.
The three apparent contenders: “Anora,” Sean Baker’s wild dramedy about the romance between an American sex worker and the son of a Russian oligarch; the Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown”; and the epic immigrant drama “The Brutalist.” “Anora,” with recent wins of the Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild of America awards, appears to have pulled ahead.
For me it’s close. ‘I’m Still Here,” a true story about political oppression in Brazil in the early 1970s, might offer more conventional storytelling than “Anora,” but it packs the most powerful punch of the nominees. “A Complete Unknown” also is right up there, with Timothee Chalamet transforming into Dylan as a young folk rebel.
Prediction: “Anora.”
Nominee I’d like to win: “I’m Still Here.”
My choices (in order, starting with my winner): “The Bikeriders,” “The Beast,” “Civil War,” “Flipside,” “Daddio,” “A Real Pain,” “All We Imagine as Light,” “The Piano Lesson,” “Small Things Like These,” “Made in England: The Films of Power and Pressburger.”
Best Actress
1. Demi Moore, “The Substance.”
2. Mikey Madison, “Anora.”
3. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked.”
4. Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here.”
5. Karla Sofia Gascon, “Emilia Perez.”
Demi Moore appears to have the inside track for best actress for her work in “The Substance.” (Mubi)
Gascon’s chances, like her movie, have gone up and down for PC reasons. While any of the other four are deserving, veteran Moore, giving the performance of her career as a famous actress-turned-TV-aerobics-instructor who’s fired because of her age, and relative newcomer Madison, as a feisty stripper who won’t back down when dealing with an oligarch’s thugs, are most likely to win for the boldness of their work. Moore just won the Screen Actors Guild Award, so …
Prediction: Demi Moore.
Nominee I’d like to win: Demi Moore.
My choices: Jodie Comer, “The Bikeriders” (her performance the cinematic highlight of 2024); Lea Seydoux, “The Beast”; Zendaya, “Challengers”; Dakota Johnson, “Daddio”; Renate Rensve, “Armand.”
Best Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown.”
2. Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice.”
3. Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist.”
4. Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing.”
5. Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave.”
Timothee Chalamet could take home an Oscar for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” (Searchlight Pictures)
If there were a Motion Picture Hall of Fame, Fiennes would be my pick to go in first among these nominees. But if he wins this year, I’d think it would be more of a career award (which happens sometimes). I’d go with Chalamet for his remarkable Dylan, though Stan nailed Donald Trump (not literally) in “The Apprentice” and Brody might very well win his second Oscar for his work as an immigrant architect in “The Brutalist.” Then again, Chalamet won the SAG Award.
Prediction: Timothee Chalamet.
Nominee I’d like to win: Timothee Chalamet.
My choices: Cillian Murphy, “Small Things Like These”; Daniel Craig, “Queer”; Chalamet; John David Washington, “The Piano Lesson”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker: Folie a Deux.”
Best Supporting Actress
1. Ariana Grande, “Wicked.”
2. Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Perez.”
3. Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist.”
4. Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave.”
5. Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown.”
This is often one of the strongest acting categories; this year, it’s the weakest. I’d give the edge to Grande for her engaging singing and silliness as the popular witch in “Wicked,” but Saldana appears a shoo-in, having won pretty much every award in sight, for another musical role.
Prediction: Zoe Saldana.
Nominee I’d like to win: Ariana Grande.
My choices: Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”; Cailee Spaeny, “Civil War”; Renate Rensve, “A Different Man”; Selena Gomez, “Emilia Perez”; Grande.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice.”
2. Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain.”
3. Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown.”
4. Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist.”
5. Yura Borisov, “Anora.”
This year’s strongest category, with former “Succession” co-stars Strong and Culkin standing out – though, really, any of these nominees could win.
Strong is brilliantly understated as Trump mentor Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice.” The actor could have gone full-on villain but instead plays ruthless lawyer Cohn, arguably a monster, as if he’s at least sympathetic toward the character. And it works.
As the title character in “A Real Pain,” Culkin, in what could be considered a borderline lead role, offers lots of heart and humor as the more spontaneous and emotional of two cousins (the other Jesse Eisenberg) touring Poland in honor of their Holocaust survivor grandmother.
While Norton (as Pete Seeger), Pearce and Borisov also are good, Strong or Culkin should win, and it’s a toss-up which one. Who knows if either will.
Prediction: Kieran Culkin.
Nominee I’d like to win: Jeremy Strong.
My choices: Adam Pearson, “A Different Man”; Tom Hardy, “The Bikeriders”; Strong; Culkin; Nicolas Cage, “Longlegs.”
Best Director
1. Sean Baker, “Anora.”
2. James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown.”
3. Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance.”
4. Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist.”
5. Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Perez.”
Fargeat’s stunning visual style might place her higher if she hadn’t gone quite so over the top in her body-horror entry, “The Substance.” Baker’s successful merging of genres gets the edge here, and, given he won the Directors Guild of America Award, the Oscar voters are likely to agree.
Prediction: Sean Baker.
Nominee I’d like to win: Sean Baker.
My choices: Jeff Nichols, “The Bikeriders”; Bertrand Bonello, “The Beast”; Alex Garland, “Civil War”; Payal Kapadia, “All We Imagine as Light”; Rich Peppiatt, “Kneecap.”
** Click here for Tim Miller’s previous movie columns for Cape Cod Wave **
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Tim Miller
Tim Miller is co-president of the Boston Society of Film Critics and a Tomatometer-approved critic. He teaches film and journalism at Cape Cod Community College in West Barnstable. You can contact Tim at [email protected] or follow him onTwitter @TimMillerCritic. Or you can ignore him completely.
